Although highly developed, with a strong local population of equity and debt investors, the Nordic market remains one of the smaller European regions in volume terms, typically generating about 10% of all later-stage European dealflow. 

However, despite the geopolitical headwinds caused by the war in Ukraine, the number of Nordic later-stage deals grew in annual terms by 8.5% in 2022, compared with a 6% increase in the neighbouring DACH region and a 13% fall in UK/ROI dealflow.

Much of this growth came because of strong activity levels in the first six months of 2022, with activity levels tailing off significantly in the second half of the year, in line with trends across Europe. Nevertheless, figures for the latest full quarter show deal numbers rising in three of the four Nordic countries and anecdotal reports are cautiously optimistic about prospects for dealflow in the short to medium term.

As is the case with other smaller European regions, the value trend in the Nordic market is disproportionately affected by small numbers of large deals. At well over €5bn, the secondary buyout of Anticimex by EQT Partners in June 2021 underpinned the Q1/Q2 2021 spike in market value alongside other sizeable transactions in the first half of that year (Northvolt, AutoStore, STARK and Recipharm AB). Since then, the number of large deals has fallen away – as it has in many other regions of Europe – and the average quarterly value has hovered around the €3-5bn mark, except for in Q2 2022 when the €2.8bn SBO of Envirotainer by EQT and Mubadala Investments boosted the figure to close to €8bn.

One of the standout features of the Nordic market is the strength of the local investment community and this is well demonstrated by the league table of GPs that have acted as lead or co-lead in later-stage Nordic deals between the beginning of 2021 and the end of Q1 2023. Of the top 20 GPs (ranked by volume of transactions and then by value), only three are not of Nordic origin and just two focus on the lower mid-cap and mid-market area (Main Capital and Perwyn), which is dominated by local players. The other on the list – CVC Capital Partners – focuses almost totally on the top end of the market, but even in this area there was strong competition from local investors such as EQT, Nordic Capital, FSN and Axcel. That said, other international investors such as Hg, Goldman Sachs, Agilitas, Waterland and TA Associates have all completed multiple deals in the region since the beginning of 2021.

Whether the optimism of local market specialists proves to be well founded remains to be seen. Certainly, the preliminary figures for Q2 2023 appear to be relatively modest, but this could change before the end of the quarter.

To view the full data breakdown in Real Deals' June issue, click here.

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Methodology: The league table is based on the number of deals involving Nordics-based assets in which GPs have acted as lead or co-lead 
(Q1 2021 to the end of Q1 2023). It includes buyouts, growth capital and bolt-on deals.